In addition to worries over these banks’ stability, there’s some concern that banks that accepted government dollars may be pressured to use that money within their home countries. To be sure, banks that want to remain a player in a global economy can’t simply pull back on existing agreements. But, political pressure could affect their future lending. “It’s a legitimate concern,” Colon notes.
Some of the banks that participated in the government bailout may now find a few of their own customers bailing. Respondents to a recent survey by research firm Greenwich Associates indicated they are looking at adding new banks to their roster of financial partners, given their concerns about the stability of the more troubled banks. That’s particularly true for banks that accepted government guarantees and capitalization. “We’re seeing more of a shift toward those banks with positive reputations,” says John Colon, managing director with Greenwich.
However, it’s unclear to what extent even firms that want to move truly will be able to switch their business. Large, multinational organizations need the breadth and depth of products and services that large, multinational banks provide, Colon notes. “They’re not just going to walk away.” More likely Economics, these firms will look to the regional institutions to supplement their current group of banking partners.
Among the banks most likely to benefit in the U.S. are some regional players, like PNC and U.S. Bancorp, that (at least so far) haven’t been too terribly caught up in the financial crisis. Another winner is JPMorgan, whose reputation actually got a boost as a result of its actions over the past year, including its takeover of Bear Stearns.
It’s also hard to discern which of the regional banks made conscious decisions to avoid the lines of business that now are causing so much trouble, and which simply lacked the scale to make significant inroads into these businesses in the first place. Whether it was by design or luck, or some combination of the two Economics, these banks should see their corporate business pick up. ###
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